Effect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study
- PMID: 24183056
- PMCID: PMC3946250
- DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61904-2
Effect of closure of live poultry markets on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus: an ecological study
Abstract
Background: Transmission of the novel avian influenza A H7N9 virus seems to be predominantly between poultry and people. In the major Chinese cities of Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing--where most human cases of infection have occurred--live poultry markets (LPMs) were closed in April, 2013, soon after the initial outbreak, as a precautionary public health measure. Our objective was to quantify the effect of LPM closure in these cities on poultry-to-person transmission of avian influenza A H7N9 virus.
Methods: We obtained information about every laboratory-confirmed human case of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection reported in the four cities by June 7, 2013, from a database built by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We used data for age, sex, location, residence type (rural or urban area), and dates of illness onset. We obtained information about LPMs from official sources. We constructed a statistical model to explain the patterns in incidence of cases reported in each city on the basis of the assumption of a constant force of infection before LPM closure, and a different constant force of infection after closure. We fitted the model with Markov chain Monte Carlo methods.
Findings: 85 human cases of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection were reported in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Huzhou, and Nanjing by June 7, 2013, of which 60 were included in our main analysis. Closure of LPMs reduced the mean daily number of infections by 99% (95% credibility interval 93-100%) in Shanghai, by 99% (92-100%) in Hangzhou, by 97% (68-100%) in Huzhou, and by 97% (81-100%) in Nanjing. Because LPMs were the predominant source of exposure to avian influenza A H7N9 virus for confirmed cases in these cities, we estimated that the mean incubation period was 3·3 days (1·4-5·7).
Interpretation: LPM closures were effective in the control of human risk of avian influenza A H7N9 virus infection in the spring of 2013. In the short term, LPM closure should be rapidly implemented in areas where the virus is identified in live poultry or people. In the long term, evidence-based discussions and deliberations about the role of market rest days and central slaughtering of all live poultry should be renewed.
Funding: Ministry of Science and Technology, China; Research Fund for the Control of Infectious Disease; Hong Kong University Grants Committee; China-US Collaborative Program on Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases; Harvard Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics; and the US National Institutes of Health.
Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Conflict of interest statement
BJC has received research funding from MedImmune Inc., and consults for Crucell NV. GML has received speaker honoraria from HSBC and CLSA. The authors report no other potential conflicts of interest.
Figures
Comment in
-
Can closure of live poultry markets halt the spread of H7N9?Lancet. 2014 Feb 8;383(9916):496-7. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(13)62109-1. Epub 2013 Oct 31. Lancet. 2014. PMID: 24183055 No abstract available.
Similar articles
-
Live poultry market closure and avian influenza A (H7N9) infection in cities of China, 2013-2017: an ecological study.BMC Infect Dis. 2020 May 24;20(1):369. doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05091-7. BMC Infect Dis. 2020. PMID: 32448137 Free PMC article.
-
[The effects of closure to live poultry markets on Avian influenza A (H7N9) epidemics in China].Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2017 Dec 10;38(12):1716-1718. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.12.027. Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2017. PMID: 29294594 Review. Chinese.
-
Effect of closure of live poultry markets in China on prevention and control of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza: a case study of four cities in Jiangsu Province.J Public Health Policy. 2019 Dec;40(4):436-447. doi: 10.1057/s41271-019-00185-2. J Public Health Policy. 2019. PMID: 31527787
-
Viral lung infections: epidemiology, virology, clinical features, and management of avian influenza A(H7N9).Curr Opin Pulm Med. 2014 May;20(3):225-32. doi: 10.1097/MCP.0000000000000047. Curr Opin Pulm Med. 2014. PMID: 24637225 Review.
-
Effects of closing and reopening live poultry markets on the epidemic of human infection with avian influenza A virus.J Biomed Res. 2016 Mar;30(2):112-119. doi: 10.7555/JBR.30.20150054. Epub 2015 Dec 29. J Biomed Res. 2016. PMID: 28276666 Free PMC article.
Cited by 124 articles
-
Genetic diversity of the H5N1 viruses in live bird markets, Indonesia.J Vet Sci. 2020 Jul;21(4):e56. doi: 10.4142/jvs.2020.21.e56. J Vet Sci. 2020. PMID: 32735094 Free PMC article.
-
Avian influenza overview October 2016-August 2017.EFSA J. 2017 Oct 16;15(10):e05018. doi: 10.2903/j.efsa.2017.5018. eCollection 2017 Oct. EFSA J. 2017. PMID: 32625308 Free PMC article.
-
Geographical variation in the risk of H7N9 human infections in China: implications for risk-based surveillance.Sci Rep. 2020 Jun 25;10(1):10372. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-66359-1. Sci Rep. 2020. PMID: 32587266 Free PMC article.
-
Live poultry market closure and avian influenza A (H7N9) infection in cities of China, 2013-2017: an ecological study.BMC Infect Dis. 2020 May 24;20(1):369. doi: 10.1186/s12879-020-05091-7. BMC Infect Dis. 2020. PMID: 32448137 Free PMC article.
-
The SARS-CoV-2 outbreak from a one health perspective.One Health. 2020 Mar 16:100127. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100127. Online ahead of print. One Health. 2020. PMID: 32292814 Free PMC article.
Publication types
MeSH terms
Grant support
LinkOut - more resources
-
Full Text Sources
-
Medical
-
Miscellaneous